Towards Interpretable End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prediction: Utilizing Administrative Claims Data with Explainable AI Techniques

TL;DR

This paper develops and compares machine learning models, including deep learning and explainability techniques, to predict ESRD progression from administrative claims data, demonstrating improved accuracy and interpretability.

Contribution

It introduces an LSTM-based prediction model with explainability for ESRD progression using claims data, advancing interpretability in clinical prediction models.

Findings

LSTM with 24-month window outperforms other models

SHAP analysis provides feature importance at individual level

Claims data can effectively predict ESRD progression

Abstract

This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.