Updated forecast for TRAPPIST-1 times of transit for all seven exoplanets incorporating JWST data

TL;DR

This paper refines the predicted transit times for all seven TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets using new JWST data, significantly improving the precision of future observation planning.

Contribution

It provides updated transit time forecasts for TRAPPIST-1 planets based on 23 new JWST measurements, enhancing accuracy over previous models.

Findings

Transit times of TRAPPIST-1h have shifted significantly from previous estimates.

Median uncertainties in transit time predictions range from 7 to 105 seconds.

The improved forecast aids in planning future JWST observations.

Abstract

The TRAPPIST-1 system has been extensively observed with JWST in the near-infrared with the goal of measuring atmospheric transit transmission spectra of these temperate, Earth-sized exoplanets. A byproduct of these observations has been much more precise times of transit compared with prior available data from Spitzer, HST, or ground-based telescopes. In this note we use 23 new timing measurements of all seven planets in the near-infrared from five JWST observing programs to better forecast and constrain the future times of transit in this system. In particular, we note that the transit times of TRAPPIST-1h have drifted significantly from a prior published analysis by up to tens of minutes. Our newer forecast has a higher precision, with median statistical uncertainties ranging from 7-105 seconds during JWST Cycles 4 and 5. Our expectation is that this forecast will help to improve planning of future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, whereas we postpone a full dynamical analysis to future work.