Exploring the time variability of the Solar Wind using LOFAR pulsar data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian Gaussian process model for the Solar Wind, improving the accuracy of pulsar timing by capturing its temporal variability and enhancing solar wind modeling in PTA experiments.

Contribution

It presents a new Solar Wind Gaussian Process model that accounts for continuous temporal variability, validated through simulations and applied to LOFAR pulsar data.

Findings

Strong correlation between electron density and pulsar ecliptic latitude.

Distinct temporal patterns in electron densities related to solar activity.

Improved solar wind modeling over previous static or piece-wise models.

Abstract

High-precision pulsar timing is highly dependent on precise and accurate modeling of any effects that impact the data. It was shown that commonly used Solar Wind models do not accurately account for variability in the amplitude of the Solar wind on both short and long time scales. In this study, we test and validate a new, cutting-edge Solar wind modeling method included in the \texttt{enterprise} software suite through extended simulations, and we apply it to investigate temporal variability in LOFAR data. Our model testing scheme in itself provides an invaluable asset for pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. As improperly accounting for the solar wind signature in pulsar data can induce false-positive signals, it is of fundamental importance to include in any such investigations. We employ a Bayesian approach utilizing a continuously varying Gaussian process to model the solar wind referred to as Solar Wind Gaussian Process (SWGP). We conduct noise analysis on eight pulsars from the LOFAR dataset with most pulsars having a timespan of $\sim 11$ years encompassing one full solar activity cycle. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between the electron density at 1 AU and the ecliptic latitude (ELAT) of the pulsar. Pulsars with $|ELAT|< 3^{\circ}$ exhibit significantly higher average electron densities. We observe distinct temporal patterns in electron densities in different pulsars. In particular, pulsars within $|ELAT|< 3^{\circ}$ exhibit similar temporal variations, while the electron densities of those outside this range correlate with the solar activity cycle. The continuous variability in electron density offered in this model represents a substantial improvement over previous models, which assume a single value for piece-wise bins of time. This advancement holds promise for solar wind modeling in future International Pulsar Timing Array data combinations.