Yes, Prime Minister, question order does matter -- and it's certainly not classical! But is it quantum?

TL;DR

This paper explores whether quantum probability theory can explain how question order influences survey responses, revealing limitations and constraints of quantum models in cognitive behavior analysis.

Contribution

It demonstrates the potential and limitations of applying quantum probability to model question order effects in surveys, especially in complex political satire contexts.

Findings

Classical probability cannot explain question order effects.

Quantum probability offers a possible explanation but has constraints.

Data from a British political satire poll challenges simple quantum explanations.

Abstract

Response to a poll can be manipulated by means of a series of leading questions. We show that such phenomena cannot be explained by use of classical probability theory, whereas quantum probability theory admits a possibility of offering an explanation. Admissible transformation rules in quantum probability, however, do impose some constraints on the modelling of cognitive behaviour, which are highlighted here. Focusing on a recent poll conducted by Ipsos on a set of questions posed by Sir Humphrey Appleby in an episode of the British political satire \textit{Yes, Prime Minister}, we show that the resulting data cannot be explained quite so simply using quantum rules, although it seems not impossible.