Joint spatial modeling of mean and non-homogeneous variance combining semiparametric SAR and GAMLSS models for hedonic prices

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel spatial econometric methodology that jointly models mean and variance using semiparametric SAR and GAMLSS models, improving prediction accuracy and variance estimation in spatial data.

Contribution

It develops a new joint modeling approach for mean and variance with spatial dependence, incorporating non-parametric effects within a spatial regression framework.

Findings

Enhanced predictive capacity demonstrated in simulations.

Improved estimation of spatial autoregressive parameters.

Effective modeling of housing price variability in Bogota.

Abstract

In the context of spatial econometrics, it is very useful to have methodologies that allow modeling the spatial dependence of the observed variables and obtaining more precise predictions of both the mean and the variability of the response variable, something very useful in territorial planning and public policies. This paper proposes a new methodology that jointly models the mean and the variance. Also, it allows to model the spatial dependence of the dependent variable as a function of covariates and to model the semiparametric effects in both models. The algorithms developed are based on generalized additive models that allow the inclusion of non-parametric terms in both the mean and the variance, maintaining the traditional theoretical framework of spatial regression. The theoretical developments of the estimation of this model are carried out, obtaining desirable statistical properties in the estimators. A simulation study is developed to verify that the proposed method has a remarkable predictive capacity in terms of the mean square error and shows a notable improvement in the estimation of the spatial autoregressive parameter, compared to other traditional methods and some recent developments. The model is also tested on data from the construction of a hedonic price model for the city of Bogota, highlighting as the main result the ability to model the variability of housing prices, and the wealth in the analysis obtained.