LSR-IGRU: Stock Trend Prediction Based on Long Short-Term Relationships and Improved GRU

TL;DR

This paper introduces LSR-IGRU, a novel stock trend prediction model that leverages long and short-term stock relationships using an improved GRU, demonstrating superior accuracy and profitability in experiments.

Contribution

The paper presents a new model that incorporates long short-term stock relationships with an improved GRU, utilizing industry info and overnight prices for better prediction accuracy.

Findings

Outperforms state-of-the-art models in stock trend prediction.

Achieves higher cumulative portfolio returns in real trading scenarios.

Validates effectiveness across multiple stock market datasets.

Abstract

Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods have begun to focus on exploring the interrelationships between stocks. However, existing methods mostly focus on the short-term dynamic relationships of stocks and directly integrating relationship information with temporal information. They often overlook the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics and potential higher-order interaction relationships among stocks in the stock market. Therefore, we propose a stock price trend prediction model named LSR-IGRU in this paper, which is based on long short-term stock relationships and an improved GRU input. Firstly, we construct a long short-term relationship matrix between stocks, where secondary industry information is employed for the first time to capture long-term relationships of stocks, and overnight price information is utilized to establish short-term relationships. Next, we improve the inputs of the GRU model at each step, enabling the model to more effectively integrate temporal information and long short-term relationship information, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of predicting stock trend changes. Finally, through extensive experiments on multiple datasets from stock markets in China and the United States, we validate the superiority of the proposed LSR-IGRU model over the current state-of-the-art baseline models. We also apply the proposed model to the algorithmic trading system of a financial company, achieving significantly higher cumulative portfolio returns compared to other baseline methods. Our sources are released at https://github.com/ZP1481616577/Baselines_LSR-IGRU.