Watts and Bots: The Energy Implications of AI Adoption

TL;DR

This paper estimates the potential increase in energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the US due to AI adoption, highlighting environmental impacts at industry and national levels.

Contribution

It provides a data-driven estimation of energy and emission increases resulting from AI adoption across US industries, a novel integration of economic and environmental data.

Findings

Energy use could increase by up to 12 PJ per year.

CO2 emissions could rise by up to 272 ktCO2 annually.

Overall, a 0.03% increase in US energy consumption and 0.02% in CO2 emissions.

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence, there are expectations for a proportional expansion of economic activity due to increased productivity, and with it energy consumption and its associated environmental consequences like carbon dioxide emissions. Here, we combine data on economic activity, with early estimates of likely adoption of AI across occupations and industries, to estimate the increase in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions at the industry level and in aggregate for the US economy. At the industry level, energy use can increase between 0 and 12 PJ per year, while emissions increase between 47 tCO$_2$ and 272 ktCO$_2$. Aggregating across industries in the US economy, this totals an increase in energy consumption of 28 PJ per year, or around 0.03% of energy use per year in the US. We find this translates to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 896 ktCO$_2$ per year, or around 0.02% of the CO$_2$ emissions per year in the US.