Analyzing and Forecasting Success in the Men's Ice Hockey World (Junior) Championships Using a Dynamic Ranking Model

TL;DR

This paper develops a dynamic ranking model to analyze factors influencing success in men's ice hockey championships, revealing insights about home advantage, player characteristics, and experience effects, and providing tournament forecasts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel dynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution that incorporates time-varying team strength parameters and applies it to ice hockey success analysis.

Findings

Home advantage is significant in junior championships.

Experience in IIHF tournaments outweighs NHL experience.

Shorter, heavier players tend to perform better.

Abstract

What factors contribute to the success of national teams in the Men's Ice Hockey World Championships and the Men's Ice Hockey World Junior Championships? This study examines whether hosting the tournament provides a home advantage; the influence of past tournament performances; the impact of players' physical characteristics such as height, weight, and age; and the value of experience from the World Championships compared to the NHL and other leagues. We employ a dynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying strength parameters driven by the score. The results show that experience in the IIHF tournaments outweighs experience in the NHL. Furthermore, in junior championships, there is a significant home advantage, and shorter, heavier players tend to have an edge. In senior championships, future success is linked to past achievements in both junior and senior championships, with younger teams performing better. Finally, we conduct a forecasting analysis to predict the probabilities of winning the tournament, earning a medal, and advancing to the playoff phase.