Understanding changes in traffic demand during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games

TL;DR

This study analyzes how toll surcharges and TDM strategies during the Tokyo 2020 Olympics affected traffic demand on the expressway, revealing significant demand reductions due to tolls and notable spatial heterogeneity.

Contribution

It introduces a demand function incorporating spatial heterogeneity and employs a difference-in-differences approach to quantify Olympics-related impacts on traffic demand.

Findings

Toll surcharges reduced passenger demand by 25-37%.

TDM strategies decreased demand on weekends/holidays but increased it on weekdays.

Spatial heterogeneity in toll elasticity varies significantly between weekdays and weekends/holidays.

Abstract

This paper evaluated the effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on traffic demand on the Metropolitan expressway. We constructed panel data for both passenger and freight vehicles' demand using longitudinal disaggregated trip records from the Metropolitan expressway. Subsequently, we established a demand function and used a difference-in-differences method to individually estimate the impacts of toll surcharges and other Olympics-related factors by leveraging the fact that the toll surcharges were not applied to freight vehicles. The results indicate that toll surcharges resulted in a decrease of 25.0 % for weekdays and 36.8 % for weekends/holidays in passenger vehicle demand on the Metropolitan expressway. The estimated toll elasticities are 0.345 for weekdays and 0.615 for weekends/holidays, respectively. Notably, analysis of the Olympics-related factor demonstrated that travel demand management (TDM) strategies effectively curbed demand on weekends/holidays with a reduction of 2.9 % in traffic demand. However, on weekdays, induced demand surpassed the reduction of demand by other TDM strategies than tolling, resulting in a 4.6 % increase in traffic demand. Additionally, We developed a zone-based demand function and investigate the spatial heterogeneity in toll elasticity. Our findings revealed small heterogeneity for weekdays (0.283 to 0.509) and large heterogeneity for weekends/holidays (0.484 to 0.935).