QuantFactor REINFORCE: Mining Steady Formulaic Alpha Factors with Variance-bounded REINFORCE

TL;DR

This paper introduces a variance-bounded REINFORCE algorithm for mining interpretable, steady alpha factors in financial markets, addressing high variance issues of previous methods and improving correlation with asset returns.

Contribution

It proposes a novel REINFORCE-based reinforcement learning framework with a new baseline and reward shaping for more stable and effective alpha factor mining.

Findings

Boosts correlation with returns by 3.83%

Achieves stronger excess returns than recent methods

Effectively reduces variance in policy gradient estimates

Abstract

Alpha factor mining aims to discover investment signals from the historical financial market data, which can be used to predict asset returns and gain excess profits. Powerful deep learning methods for alpha factor mining lack interpretability, making them unacceptable in the risk-sensitive real markets. Formulaic alpha factors are preferred for their interpretability, while the search space is complex and powerful explorative methods are urged. Recently, a promising framework is proposed for generating formulaic alpha factors using deep reinforcement learning, and quickly gained research focuses from both academia and industries. This paper first argues that the originally employed policy training method, i.e., Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), faces several important issues in the context of alpha factors mining. Herein, a novel reinforcement learning algorithm based on the well-known REINFORCE algorithm is proposed. REINFORCE employs Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the policy gradient-yielding unbiased but high variance estimates. The minimal environmental variability inherent in the underlying state transition function, which adheres to the Dirac distribution, can help alleviate this high variance issue, making REINFORCE algorithm more appropriate than PPO. A new dedicated baseline is designed to theoretically reduce the commonly suffered high variance of REINFORCE. Moreover, the information ratio is introduced as a reward shaping mechanism to encourage the generation of steady alpha factors that can better adapt to changes in market volatility. Evaluations on real assets data indicate the proposed algorithm boosts correlation with returns by 3.83\%, and a stronger ability to obtain excess returns compared to the latest alpha factors mining methods, which meets the theoretical results well.