Impact of Transit on Mobility, Equity, and Economy in the Chicago Metropolitan Region

TL;DR

This study uses a novel simulation to quantify how transit removal in Chicago would increase congestion, activity cancellations, and economic losses, highlighting transit's vital role in urban mobility and equity.

Contribution

It introduces a new agent-based model to compare transit scenarios, quantifying transit's impact on congestion, activity, and economy in Chicago.

Findings

Removing transit increases travel times by 14.2% regionally.

Activity cancellations reach 8.6% regionally without transit.

Economic losses amount to $35.4 billion annually.

Abstract

Transit is essential for urban transportation and achieving net-zero targets. In urban areas like the Chicago Metropolitan Region, transit enhances mobility and connects people, fostering a dynamic economy. To quantify the mobility and selected economic impacts of transit, we use a novel agent-based simulation model POLARIS to compare baseline service against a scenario in which transit is completely removed. The transit-removal scenario assumes higher car ownership and results in higher traffic congestion, numerous activity cancellations, and economic decline. In this scenario, average travel times increase by 14.2% regionally and 34.7% within the City of Chicago. The resulting congestion causes significant activity cancellations despite increased car ownership: 11.8% of non-work and 2.8% of work/school activities regionally, totaling an 8.6% overall cancellation rate. In the city, non-work cancellations would reach 26.9%, and work/school cancellations 7.3%, leading to a 19.9% overall cancellation rate. The impact varies between groups. Women and lower-income individuals are more likely to cancel activities than men and higher-income groups. Women account for 53.7% of non-work and 53.0% of total cancellations. The lowest 40% income group experiences 50.2% of non-work and 48.0% of overall cancellations. Combined, activity cancellations, travel time losses, and increased car ownership cost the region $35.4 billion. With annual public transit funding at $2.7 billion, the ratio is 13 to 1, underscoring transit's critical role in mobility, equity, and economic health.