Simple fusion-fission quantifies Israel-Palestine violence and suggests multi-adversary solution

TL;DR

This paper introduces a fusion-fission model of human conflict, explaining complex casualty patterns in Israel-Palestine, predicting future attacks, and proposing a multi-adversary solution based on clustering behavior.

Contribution

It applies a fusion-fission clustering framework to human conflict, providing a quantitative explanation for violence patterns and predicting future attack risks.

Findings

Fusion-fission explains casualty patterns in Israel-Palestine.

Model predicts more lethal future attacks.

Provides a testable formula and simulation for risk assessment.

Abstract

Why humans fight has no easy answer. However, understanding better how humans fight could inform future interventions, hidden shifts and casualty risk. Fusion-fission describes the well-known grouping behavior of fish etc. fighting for survival in the face of strong opponents: they form clusters ('fusion') which provide collective benefits and a cluster scatters when it senses danger ('fission'). Here we show how similar clustering (fusion-fission) of human fighters provides a unified quantitative explanation for complex casualty patterns across decades of Israel-Palestine region violence, as well as the October 7 surprise attack -- and uncovers a hidden post-October 7 shift. State-of-the-art data shows this fighter fusion-fission in action. It also predicts future 'super-shock' attacks that will be more lethal than October 7 and will arrive earlier. It offers a multi-adversary solution. Our results -- which include testable formulae and a plug-and-play simulation -- enable concrete risk assessments of future casualties and policy-making grounded by fighter behavior.