Accurate pulsar timing array residual variances and correlation of the stochastic gravitational wave background

TL;DR

This paper improves the analysis of pulsar timing array data by deriving accurate residual variance and correlation expressions, revealing potential systematic errors in traditional methods and supporting an astrophysical origin of the gravitational wave background.

Contribution

It introduces theoretically precise formulas for residual variances and correlations, challenging common assumptions and aiding in identifying the gravitational wave background's origin.

Findings

Derived accurate Fourier bin variances and correlations.

Identified systematic errors in traditional power law models.

Supported an astrophysical source as the origin of the signal.

Abstract

Pulsar timing arrays have reported a compelling evidence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. However, the origin of the signal remains undetermined, largely because its spectrum is bluer for an astrophysical source and can be explained by cosmological models. In this letter, we revisit the frequency- and Fourier-domain analysis of the signal by deriving theoretically accurate expressions for the Fourier bin variances and correlation of pulsar timing residuals, and demonstrate their outstanding agreement with point source astrophysical simulations. In contrast, we show that a common power law (or a diagonal covariance approximation) traditionally used to interpret a stochastic gravitational wave background signal is generally faced with systematic errors, one of which is the illusion of a bluer signal. This hints at a conservative solution, supportive of an astrophysical source, to the observed correlated common spectrum process in pulsar timing arrays.