A Comprehensive Analysis of the Future of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

TL;DR

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of current atomically precise manufacturing (APM) technologies, analyzing barriers and predicting future developments to guide research, regulation, and safety considerations in this emerging field.

Contribution

It offers a detailed analysis of the current state of APM, identifies barriers to progress, and predicts future trajectories based on recent advancements and challenges.

Findings

Current APM technologies are in early development stages.

Barriers include technical, economic, and regulatory challenges.

Future APM developments are likely to be incremental and regulated.

Abstract

Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM) refers to the assembly of materials with atomic precision, representing a highly advanced technology with significant potential. However, the development of APM remains in its early stages, with applications largely confined to specialized fields and lacking cohesion within a unified discipline. The current literature on APM is often dominated by older, speculative papers that discuss its immense potential risks and benefits without sufficient grounding in the latest advancements or practical limitations that exist today. This paper aims to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive assessment of current APM and near-APM technologies, as well as using the barriers to further progress to predict future developments. Through this analysis, we seek to establish a clearer understanding of the present state of the technology and then use these insights to predict the future trajectory of APM. By doing so, we aim to create a more grounded discourse on APM and its potential risks and benefits, while also guiding future research on the necessary regulations and safety considerations for this emerging field.