On the Cosmic Variance of the Merger Rate Density of Binary Neutron Stars

TL;DR

This study assesses how cosmic variance affects the estimation of binary neutron star merger rates, finding it negligible for current detectors but significant for future localized measurements within small cosmic volumes.

Contribution

It quantifies the impact of cosmic variance on BNS merger rate estimates using large-scale simulations and models, highlighting its importance for future gravitational wave observations.

Findings

Cosmic variance causes 23-35% fluctuation at 100 Mpc scales.

Current LVK detectors are unaffected by cosmic variance in merger rate estimates.

Future detectors may observe significant variance (~55%) in small sky regions.

Abstract

The cosmic variance on the star formation history may lead to bias to the merger rate density estimation of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers by the compact binary population synthesis. In this paper, we take the advantage of the large boxsize of the Millennium Simulation combined with the semi-analytic galaxy formation model GABE, and the parameterized population binary star evolution (BSE) model to examine how much effect will the cosmic variance introduce on the estimation of merger rate density of BNS mergers. We find that for sub-box size of $100\rm Mpc$ and $200\rm Mpc$, the variance of merger rate density $\sigma_{\rm R}/\rm R$ at different redshift is about $23\%-35\%$ and $13\%-20\%$ respectively. On one hand, as for the variance of the detection rate on BNS mergers with current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detector network, this value is very small $\lesssim 10\%$, which indicates ignoring the cosmic variance is reasonable for estimating the merger rate density from current LVK observation. On the other hand, with next-generation gravitational wave detectors, it is possible to localize BNS mergers within sub-boxes possessing length of $\rm 40 Mpc$ for source redshift $z_{s}<0.2$. In such a small box, the cosmic variance of the merger rate density is significant, i.e., the value of $\sigma_{\rm R}/\rm R$ is about $\sim 55\%$. This hints that estimating the merger rate density of BNS in different sky areas may provide useful information on the cosmic variance.