An evidence-based and critical analysis of the Fediverse decentralization promises

TL;DR

This paper critically examines the Fediverse's decentralization promises, analyzing technical, user distribution, and historical parallels, and finds significant challenges that may limit its impact on the social Web.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of the Fediverse's decentralization claims, comparing it with older decentralized technologies and highlighting potential limitations.

Findings

Fediverse faces significant decentralization challenges

User distribution across instances is uneven

Historical parallels with email and Web reveal similar issues

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of the Fediverse, a federated network of social media and content platforms, to counter the centralization and dominance of commercial platforms on the social Web. We gather evidence from the technology powering the Fediverse (especially the ActivityPub protocol), current statistical data regarding Fediverse user distribution over instances, and the status of two older, similar, decentralized technologies: e-mail and the Web. Our findings suggest that Fediverse will face significant challenges in fulfilling its decentralization promises, potentially hindering its ability to positively impact the social Web on a large scale.