Most Likely Noise-Induced Overturning Circulation Collapse in a 2D Boussinesq Fluid Model

TL;DR

This paper uses Large Deviation Theory to compute the most probable noise-induced transition pathway leading to the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a 2D model, revealing detailed dynamical mechanisms.

Contribution

It introduces a direct computation of collapse pathways in a 2D Boussinesq model, linking stochastic forcing to overturning circulation collapse mechanisms.

Findings

Collapse pathway starts with circulation strengthening

A salinity pulse induces a second overturning cell

Collapse probability increases near bifurcation point

Abstract

There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is relevant to compute probabilities and pathways of noise-induced transitions between the stable equilibrium states. Here, the most probable transition pathway of a noise-induced collapse of the northern overturning circulation in a spatially-continuous two-dimensional model with surface temperature and stochastic salinity forcings is directly computed using Large Deviation Theory (LDT). This pathway reveals the fluid dynamical mechanisms of such a collapse. Paradoxically it starts off with a strengthening of the northern overturning circulation before a short but strong salinity pulse induces a second overturning cell. The increased atmospheric energy input of this two-cell configuration cannot be mixed away quickly enough, leading to the collapse of the northern overturning cell and finally resulting in a southern overturning circulation. Additionally, the approach allows us to compare the probability of this collapse under different parameters in the deterministic part of the salinity surface forcing, which quantifies the increase in collapse probability as the bifurcation point of the system is approached.