Embedding Ordinality to Binary Loss Function for Improving Solar Flare Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new ordinal embedding loss function for binary solar flare prediction, improving forecast accuracy across the entire solar disk, especially in near-limb regions, using a ResNet34 model and composite skill score evaluation.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel ordinal embedding loss function for binary classification, specifically applied to solar flare prediction, enhancing model performance and spatial coverage.

Findings

Improved CSS scores by up to 7% with the new loss function.

Enabled flare predictions for ARs across the full solar disk.

Demonstrated reliable forecasts in near-limb regions with CSS=0.34.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel loss function aimed at optimizing the binary flare prediction problem by embedding the intrinsic ordinal flare characteristics into the binary cross-entropy (BCE) loss function. This modification is intended to provide the model with better guidance based on the ordinal characteristics of the data and improve the overall performance of the models. For our experiments, we employ a ResNet34-based model with transfer learning to predict $\geq$M-class flares by utilizing the shape-based features of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches spanning from $-$90$^{\circ}$ to $+$90$^{\circ}$ of solar longitude as our input data. We use a composite skill score (CSS) as our evaluation metric, which is calculated as the geometric mean of the True Skill Score (TSS) and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) to rank and compare our models' performance. The primary contributions of this work are as follows: (i) We introduce a novel approach to encode ordinality into a binary loss function showing an application to solar flare prediction, (ii) We enhance solar flare forecasting by enabling flare predictions for each AR across the entire solar disk, without any longitudinal restrictions, and evaluate and compare performance. (iii) Our candidate model, optimized with the proposed loss function, shows an improvement of $\sim$7%, $\sim$4%, and $\sim$3% for AR patches within $\pm$30$^\circ$, $\pm$60$^\circ$, and $\pm$90$^\circ$ of solar longitude, respectively in terms of CSS, when compared with standard BCE. Additionally, we demonstrate the ability to issue flare forecasts for ARs in near-limb regions (regions between $\pm$60$^{\circ}$ to $\pm$90$^{\circ}$) with a CSS=0.34 (TSS=0.50 and HSS=0.23), expanding the scope of AR-based models for solar flare prediction. This advances the reliability of solar flare forecasts, leading to more effective prediction capabilities.