A Novel {\delta}-SBM-OPA Approach for Policy-Driven Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency under Uncertainty in the Chinese Industrial Sector

TL;DR

This paper introduces a hybrid $\,delta$-SBM-OPA model to evaluate Chinese provinces' carbon emission efficiency considering government policy preferences and data uncertainty, providing tailored strategies for low-carbon development.

Contribution

It develops a novel hybrid model integrating $\,delta$-SBM and OPA to measure policy-driven emission efficiency under data uncertainty, addressing gaps in existing studies.

Findings

Most provinces are technology-driven in efficiency.

Efficiency varies significantly under different policy priorities.

The model effectively captures regional differences and policy impacts.

Abstract

Regional differences in carbon emission efficiency arise from disparities in resource distribution, industrial structure, and development level, which are often influenced by government policy preferences. However, currently, most studies fail to consider the impact of government policy preferences and data uncertainty on carbon emission efficiency. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a hybrid model based on $\delta$-slack-based model ($\delta$-SBM) and ordinal priority approach (OPA) for measuring carbon emission efficiency driven by government policy preferences under data uncertainty. The proposed $\delta$-SBM-OPA model incorporates constraints on the importance of input and output variables under different policy preference scenarios. It then develops the efficiency optimization model with Farrell frontiers and efficiency tapes to deal with the data uncertainty in input and output variables. This study demonstrates the proposed model by analyzing industrial carbon emission efficiency of Chinese provinces in 2021. It examines the carbon emission efficiency and corresponding clustering results of provinces under three types of policies: economic priority, environmental priority, and technological priority, with varying priority preferences. The results indicate that the carbon emission efficiency of the 30 provinces can mainly be categorized into technology-driven, development-balanced, and transition-potential types, with most provinces achieving optimal efficiency under the technology-dominant preferences across all policy scenarios. Ultimately, this study suggests a tailored roadmap and crucial initiatives for different provinces to progressively and systematically work towards achieving the low carbon goal.