Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO$_2$ with Neural Networks

TL;DR

This paper evaluates four advanced neural network architectures for atmospheric CO$_2$ transport modeling, demonstrating stable, mass-conserving predictions over six months and highlighting the SwinTransformer's superior performance for long-term emulation.

Contribution

It introduces a systematic benchmark and architectural adjustments enabling neural networks to accurately and stably model atmospheric CO$_2$ transport over extended periods.

Findings

SwinTransformer achieves 90-day R^2 > 0.99.

All models maintain mass conservation for over 6 months.

The study provides a benchmark dataset for ML emulators of atmospheric transport.

Abstract

Accurately describing the distribution of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO$_2$. More specifically, we center CO$_2$ input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day $R^2 > 0.99$), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.