Approximate Estimation of High-dimension Execution Skill for Dynamic Agents in Continuous Domains

TL;DR

This paper introduces a particle-filter-based method for more accurately estimating the time-varying execution skill of agents in continuous domains, addressing limitations of previous symmetric error models.

Contribution

It presents a novel estimator that models arbitrary error distributions and accounts for skill changes over time, improving upon prior methods.

Findings

Outperforms previous estimators in various settings

Produces more realistic, time-varying skill estimates

Enhances decision-making support for agents

Abstract

In many real-world continuous action domains, human agents must decide which actions to attempt and then execute those actions to the best of their ability. However, humans cannot execute actions without error. Human performance in these domains can potentially be improved by the use of AI to aid in decision-making. One requirement for an AI to correctly reason about what actions a human agent should attempt is a correct model of that human's execution error, or skill. Recent work has demonstrated successful techniques for estimating this execution error with various types of agents across different domains. However, this previous work made several assumptions that limit the application of these ideas to real-world settings. First, previous work assumed that the error distributions were symmetric normal, which meant that only a single parameter had to be estimated. In reality, agent error distributions might exhibit arbitrary shapes and should be modeled more flexibly. Second, it was assumed that the execution error of the agent remained constant across all observations. Especially for human agents, execution error changes over time, and this must be taken into account to obtain effective estimates. To overcome both of these shortcomings, we propose a novel particle-filter-based estimator for this problem. After describing the details of this approximate estimator, we experimentally explore various design decisions and compare performance with previous skill estimators in a variety of settings to showcase the improvements. The outcome is an estimator capable of generating more realistic, time-varying execution skill estimates of agents, which can then be used to assist agents in making better decisions and improve their overall performance.