Prediction of Sea Level Rise near Shanghai

TL;DR

This paper develops models to predict global and local sea-level rise, specifically near Shanghai, using historical data and trend analysis, highlighting the importance of land subsidence and tidal cycles in local predictions.

Contribution

It introduces a combined global and local sea-level prediction model incorporating land subsidence and tidal cycles for Shanghai.

Findings

Global sea-level rise rate in 2009 was 2.68 mm/a.

Projected local sea-level rise rate near Shanghai in 2020 is 0.33 mm/a.

Global sea-level is expected to rise about 9.11 cm by 2020.

Abstract

Firstly, by establishing a prediction model for global sea-level rise and calculating with Maple, it is shown that the global sea-level rise rate in 2009 is 2.68 mm/a. The height and rate of global sea-level rise will be about 9.11 cm and 3.22 mm/a in 2020. Based on the study and the actual land subsidence in Shanghai Lingang New City, the rate of relative sea-level rise near Lingang New City is calculated to be 12.68 mm/a in 2009. Then, through setting up the extrapolation prediction model with a linear trend term and a significant tidal cycle, the rise rate of average sea-level near Lingang New City was predicted. The result showed it will be 0.33 mm/a in 2020.