FuXi Weather: A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather

TL;DR

FuXi Weather is a novel machine learning system that provides accurate, 10-day global weather forecasts by assimilating satellite data, outperforming traditional models especially in data-sparse regions.

Contribution

It introduces the first all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, all-sky data assimilation and forecasting system that extends forecast skill beyond ECMWF HRES with fewer observations.

Findings

Outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions

Provides 10-day reliable global forecasts at 0.25° resolution

Achieves all-surface, all-sky data assimilation and forecasting

Abstract

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of $0.25^\circ$. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.