Predicting RSO Populations Using a Neighbouring Orbits Technique

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel observational method to estimate the population of Resident Space Objects in Low Earth Orbit by analyzing neighboring orbits and their apparent motion across multiple passes.

Contribution

The paper presents a new technique for inferring RSO populations based on observations of neighboring orbits, enhancing space situational awareness capabilities.

Findings

Simulations demonstrate effective population inference from multiple orbit passes.

Method allows estimation of RSO distribution by orbital parameters and magnitude.

Potential for improved tracking of faint RSOs in LEO.

Abstract

The determination of the full population of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is a key issue in the field of space situational awareness that will only increase in importance in the coming years. We endeavour to describe a novel method of inferring the population of RSOs as a function of orbital height and inclination for a range of magnitudes. The method described uses observations of an orbit of known height and inclination to detect RSOs on neighbouring orbits. These neighbouring orbit targets move slowly relative to our tracked orbit, and are thus detectable down to faint magnitudes. We conduct simulations to show that, by observing multiple passes of a known orbit, we can infer the population of RSOs within a defined region of orbital parameter space. Observing a range of orbits from different orbital sites will allow for the inference of a population of LEO RSOs as a function of their orbital parameters and object magnitude.