AI Consciousness and Public Perceptions: Four Futures

TL;DR

This paper explores the potential futures of AI consciousness and societal beliefs, assessing risks like suffering and disempowerment, and emphasizes the importance of understanding both AI consciousness and public perception.

Contribution

It introduces a two-dimensional framework analyzing four possible societal and factual beliefs about AI consciousness, highlighting associated risks and guiding future research priorities.

Findings

Wrong belief that AI is non-conscious poses the greatest risk.

Misbelief that AI is conscious also presents significant dangers.

Understanding AI consciousness and perceptions is crucial for risk mitigation.

Abstract

The discourse on risks from advanced AI systems ("AIs") typically focuses on misuse, accidents and loss of control, but the question of AIs' moral status could have negative impacts which are of comparable significance and could be realised within similar timeframes. Our paper evaluates these impacts by investigating (1) the factual question of whether future advanced AI systems will be conscious, together with (2) the epistemic question of whether future human society will broadly believe advanced AI systems to be conscious. Assuming binary responses to (1) and (2) gives rise to four possibilities: in the true positive scenario, society predominantly correctly believes that AIs are conscious; in the false positive scenario, that belief is incorrect; in the true negative scenario, society correctly believes that AIs are not conscious; and lastly, in the false negative scenario, society incorrectly believes that AIs are not conscious. The paper offers vivid vignettes of the different futures to ground the two-dimensional framework. Critically, we identify four major risks: AI suffering, human disempowerment, geopolitical instability, and human depravity. We evaluate each risk across the different scenarios and provide an overall qualitative risk assessment for each scenario. Our analysis suggests that the worst possibility is the wrong belief that AI is non-conscious, followed by the wrong belief that AI is conscious. The paper concludes with the main recommendations to avoid research aimed at intentionally creating conscious AI and instead focus efforts on reducing our current uncertainties on both the factual and epistemic questions on AI consciousness.