Case studies on pre-eruptive X-class flares using R-value in the lower solar atmosphere

TL;DR

This study explores the relationship between R-value variations in the low solar atmosphere and the occurrence of X-class flares, finding that R-value spikes in the optimal height range often precede flares by 48-68 hours.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of the Optimal Height Range (OHR) for R-value analysis and demonstrates its potential in predicting X-class flares in emerging active regions.

Findings

R-value spikes occur 48-68 hours before X-class flares in emerging ARs.

OHRs are identified in the low solar atmosphere (0.36-3.24 Mm) for flare prediction.

Distinct R-value evolution patterns differentiate flaring from non-flaring ARs.

Abstract

The R-value is a measure of the strength of photospheric magnetic Polarity Inversion Lines (PILs) in Active Regions (ARs). This work investigates the possibility of a relation between R-value variations and the occurrence of X-class flares in ARs, not in the solar photosphere, as usual, but above it in regions, closer to where flares occur. The modus operandi is to extrapolate the Solar Dynamic Observatory's (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetogram data up to a height of 3.24 Mm above the photosphere and then compute the R-value based on the extrapolated magnetic field. Recent studies have shown that certain flare-predictive parameters such as the horizontal gradient of the vertical magnetic field and magnetic helicity may improve flare prediction lead times significantly if studied at a specific height range above the photosphere, called the Optimal Height Range (OHR). Here we define the OHR as a collection of heights where a sudden but sustained increase in R-value is found. For the eight case studies discussed in this paper, our results indicate that it is possible for OHRs to exist in the low solar atmosphere (between 0.36 - 3.24 Mm), where R-value spikes occur 48-68 hrs before the first X-class flare of an emerging AR. The temporal evolution of R-value before the first X-class flare for an emerging AR is also found to be distinct from that of non-flaring ARs. For X-class flares associated with non-emerging ARs, an OHR could not be found.