Geographical Isolation as a Driver of Political Violence in African Cities

TL;DR

This study investigates how geographical isolation influences the intensity of political violence in African cities, revealing that isolated cities face significantly higher risks of civilian casualties regardless of city size.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis linking geographical isolation to violence intensity, highlighting that isolated African cities experience disproportionately higher civilian casualties.

Findings

Violence exhibits a sub-linear pattern with city size.

Isolated cities have a fourfold higher risk of casualties.

Larger cities tend to have fewer casualties per capita.

Abstract

Violence is commonly linked with large urban areas, and as a social phenomenon, it is presumed to scale super-linearly with population size. This study explores the hypothesis that smaller, isolated cities in Africa may experience a heightened intensity of violence against civilians. It aims to investigate the correlation between the risk of experiencing violence with a city's size and its geographical isolation. Over a 20-year period, the incidence of civilian casualties has been analysed to assess lethality in relation to varying degrees of isolation and city sizes. African cities are categorised by isolation (number of highway connections) and centrality (the estimated frequency of journeys). Findings suggest that violence against civilians exhibits a sub-linear pattern, with larger cities witnessing fewer casualties per 100,000 inhabitants. Remarkably, individuals in isolated cities face a quadrupled risk of a casualty compared to those in more connected cities.