Transit Rider Heat Stress in Atlanta, GA under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

TL;DR

This study assesses current and future heat stress risks for Atlanta transit riders, revealing significant increases in extreme heat exposure by 2100 under various climate scenarios, especially affecting vulnerable populations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of heat exposure models to predict transit rider heat stress under multiple future climate scenarios in Atlanta.

Findings

8.33% of trips under extreme heat in 2019

Projected increase to over 76% under worst-case scenario by 2100

Disproportionate impact on African American and vehicle-less riders

Abstract

Transit is a crucial mode of transportation, especially in urban areas and for urban and rural disadvantaged communities. Because extreme temperatures often pose threats to the elderly, members of the disability community, and other vulnerable populations, this study seeks to understand the level of influence that extreme temperatures may have on transit users across different demographic groups. In this case study for Atlanta, GA, heat stress is predicted for 2019 transit riders (using transit rider activity survey data) and for three future climate scenarios, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, into the year 2100. The HeatPath Analyzer and TransitSim 4.0 models were applied to predict cumulative heat exposure and trip-level risk for 35,999 trip equivalents for an average Atlanta area weekday in the summer of 2019. The analyses show that under 2019 weather conditions, 8.33% of summer trips were estimated to be conducted under extreme heat. With the projected future climate conditions, the percentage of trips under extreme heat risk grows steadily. By 2100, 37.1%, 56.1%, and 76.4% are projected to be under extreme heat risk for scenarios SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Under current weather conditions, Atlanta transit riders that own no vehicles and transit riders that are African American are disproportionately influenced by extreme heat. The disparity between these two groups and other groups of transit riders becomes wider as climate change continues to exacerbate. The findings of the study highlight an urgent need to implement heat mitigation and adaptation strategies in urban transit networks.