A Novel Hybrid Approach for Tornado Prediction in the United States: Kalman-Convolutional BiLSTM with Multi-Head Attention

TL;DR

This paper introduces a hybrid machine learning model combining Kalman filtering, BiLSTM, and multi-head attention to improve tornado prediction accuracy using radar data, outperforming traditional methods and reducing false alarms.

Contribution

The study presents a novel hybrid model that integrates Kalman filtering, convolutional BiLSTM, and multi-head attention for enhanced tornado prediction from radar data.

Findings

Superior performance in precision, recall, F1-Score, and accuracy compared to KNN and LightGBM.

Effective capture of spatial and temporal dependencies in radar data.

Potential to reduce false alarms and improve forecasting reliability.

Abstract

Tornadoes are among the most intense atmospheric vortex phenomena and pose significant challenges for detection and forecasting. Conventional methods, which heavily depend on ground-based observations and radar data, are limited by issues such as decreased accuracy over greater distances and a high rate of false positives. To address these challenges, this study utilizes the Seamless Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (SHSR) dataset from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which integrates data from multiple radar sources to enhance accuracy. A novel hybrid model, the Kalman-Convolutional BiLSTM with Multi-Head Attention, is introduced to improve dynamic state estimation and capture both spatial and temporal dependencies within the data. This model demonstrates superior performance in precision, recall, F1-Score, and accuracy compared to methods such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and LightGBM. The results highlight the considerable potential of advanced machine learning techniques to improve tornado prediction and reduce false alarm rates. Future research will focus on expanding datasets, exploring innovative model architectures, and incorporating large language models (LLMs) to provide deeper insights. This research introduces a novel model for tornado prediction, offering a robust framework for enhancing forecasting accuracy and public safety.