Climate-Driven Doubling of U.S. Maize Loss Probability: Interactive Simulation with Neural Network Monte Carlo

TL;DR

This study uses a neural network Monte Carlo simulation to predict that climate change will significantly increase the probability of maize crop losses in the U.S. Corn Belt, affecting insurance claims and policy planning.

Contribution

It introduces a novel neural network Monte Carlo method to predict climate-driven crop loss risks at a policy-relevant scale, filling a gap in climate impact assessment.

Findings

Doubling of maize loss probability by mid-century

More frequent and severe crop losses predicted

Open source tools for exploring climate impact results

Abstract

Climate change not only threatens agricultural producers but also strains related public agencies and financial institutions. These important food system actors include government entities tasked with insuring grower livelihoods and supporting response to continued global warming. We examine future risk within the U.S. Corn Belt geographic region for one such crucial institution: the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program. Specifically, we predict the impacts of climate-driven crop loss at a policy-salient "risk unit" scale. Built through our presented neural network Monte Carlo method, simulations anticipate both more frequent and more severe losses that would result in a costly doubling of the annual probability of maize Yield Protection insurance claims at mid-century. We also provide an open source pipeline and interactive visualization tools to explore these results with configurable statistical treatments. Altogether, we fill an important gap in current understanding for climate adaptation by bridging existing historic yield estimation and climate projection to predict crop loss metrics at policy-relevant granularity.