Welfare, sustainability, and equity evaluation of the New York City Interborough Express using spatially heterogeneous mode choice models

TL;DR

This study assesses the potential impacts of the New York City Interborough Express light rail, highlighting significant time savings, increased ridership, mode shifts from private vehicles, and environmental benefits.

Contribution

It introduces a spatially heterogeneous mode choice model and synthetic trip dataset to evaluate the transit project's effects in NYC.

Findings

IBX could save 28.1 minutes for potential riders.

Projected daily ridership exceeds 272,000, 81% higher than official estimates.

The project could reduce GHG emissions by 30.63 metric tons daily.

Abstract

The Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) proposed building a new light rail route called the Interborough Express (IBX) to provide a direct, fast transit linkage between Queens and Brooklyn. An open-access synthetic citywide trip agenda dataset and a block-group-level mode choice model are used to assess the potential impact IBX could bring to New York City (NYC). IBX could save 28.1 minutes to potential riders across the city. For travelers either going to or departing from areas close to IBX, the average time saving is projected to be 29.7 minutes. IBX is projected to have more than 272 thousand daily ridership after its completion (81% higher than reported in the official IBX proposal). Among those riders, more than 58 thousand people (21.4%) would come from low-income households while 185 thousand people (68.2%) would start or end along the IBX corridor. The addition of IBX would attract more than 40 thousand additional daily trips to transit mode, among which more than 16 thousand would be switched from using private vehicles, reducing potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30.63 metric tons per day. IBX can also bring significant consumer surplus benefits to the communities, which are estimated to be $0.89 USD per trip. However, the service does not appear to significantly reduce the proportion of travelers whose consumer surpluses fall below 10% of the population average (already quite low).