Unveiling land use dynamics: Insights from a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of Compositional Data

TL;DR

This paper develops a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modeling framework for land use data, addressing zero values, computational challenges, and data downscaling to support sustainable land management and policy decisions.

Contribution

It introduces novel joint models for land use data with zeros, scalable inference methods for Big Data, and spatial downscaling techniques within a Bayesian framework.

Findings

Effective handling of zero land use values

Scalable Bayesian inference for large datasets

Successful application of downscaling models

Abstract

Changes in land use patterns have significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts, making it crucial for policymakers to understand their causes and consequences. This study, part of the European LAMASUS (Land Management for Sustainability) project, aims to support the EU's climate neutrality target by developing a governance model through collaboration between policymakers, land users, and researchers. We present a methodological synthesis for treating land use data using a Bayesian approach within spatial and spatio-temporal modeling frameworks. The study tackles the challenges of analyzing land use changes, particularly the presence of zero values and computational issues with large datasets. It introduces joint model structures to address zeros and employs sequential inference and consensus methods for Big Data problems. Spatial downscaling models approximate smaller scales from aggregated data, circumventing high-resolution data complications. We explore Beta regression and Compositional Data Analysis (CoDa) for land use data, review relevant spatial and spatio-temporal models, and present strategies for handling zeros. The paper demonstrates the implementation of key models, downscaling techniques, and solutions to Big Data challenges with examples from simulated data and the LAMASUS project, providing a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing land use changes.