Threat Level Estimation From Possible Break-Up Events In LEO

TL;DR

This paper presents a method to estimate the threat level of debris from space break-up events in LEO by analyzing possible debris orbits and their intersection with a spacecraft's path using Koopman Operator solutions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining the NASA break-up model with Koopman Operator dynamics to assess collision threat levels in LEO.

Findings

Identifies all possible debris orbits crossing the asset's pathway.

Quantifies threat levels based on velocity intersections.

Provides a parameterized threat assessment framework.

Abstract

The NASA Standard Break-Up Model models collisions and explosions in space, which identifies the future distribution of debris. Given a possible break-up event, this work analyses the threat posed by the generated debris in the orbit of an asset spacecraft. Using the Koopman Operator solution of the $J_2$ perturbed two-body dynamics, the family of all possible orbits that cross the asset's pathway is identified and parameterized according to their velocity. The threat level assessment of a collision onto the asset is estimated considering the intersection between the velocities of the break-up model and the Koopman transfer solutions.