Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations II. Coronal Mass Ejections

TL;DR

This study investigates the relationship between solar energetic particle events and coronal mass ejection speeds over 25 years, deriving scaling laws to estimate maximum CME speeds and particle fluxes during extreme solar events.

Contribution

It introduces new empirical scaling laws linking SEP peak fluxes and fluences to CME speeds, and estimates upper limits for CME velocities during extreme events.

Findings

Scaling law V^5 for peak proton flux and fluence versus CME speed.

Estimated maximum CME speed of approximately 5500 km/s for the current Sun.

Consistency of derived scaling laws with cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775.

Abstract

Aims. The space radiation environment conditions and the maximum expected coronal mass ejection (CME) speed are being assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the speed of the CMEs. Methods. We utilize a complete catalog of SEP events, covering the last ~25 years of CME observations (i.e. 1997 to 2017). We calculate the peak proton fluxes and integrated event fluences for those events reaching an integral energy of up to E> 100 MeV, covering the period of the last ~25 years of CME observations. For a sample of 38 strong SEP events, we first investigate the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (IP) and fluences (FP) at a set of integral energies of E >10 MeV, E>30 MeV, E>60 MeV, and E>100 MeV versus the projected CME speed near the Sun (VCME) obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO). Based on the inferred relations, we further calculate the integrated energy dependence of both IP and FP, assuming that they follow an inverse power-law with respect to energy. By making use of simple physical assumptions, we combine our derived scaling laws to estimate the upper limits for VCME, IP, and FP focusing on two cases of known extreme SEP events that occurred on February 23, 1956 (GLE05) and in AD774/775, respectively. Given physical constraints and assumptions, several options for the upper limit VCME, associated with these events, are investigated. Results. A scaling law relating IP and FP to the CME speed as V^{5}CME for CMEs ranging between ~3400-5400 km/s is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775. At the same time, the upper CME speed that the current Sun can provide possibly falls within an upper limit of VCME <= 5500 km/s.