Investigating the HIV Epidemic in Miami Using a Novel Approach for Bayesian Inference on Partially Observed Networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference method for analyzing partially observed HIV transmission networks, reducing bias and revealing increased mixing among MSM communities in Miami-Dade County.

Contribution

It presents a novel Bayesian approach using a congruence class model to accurately estimate network properties from incomplete HIV molecular surveillance data.

Findings

Significant reduction in estimation error (43%-63%) compared to complete case analysis.

Revealed increased mixing between MSM communities by race and transmission risk.

Demonstrated the method's effectiveness through simulation studies.

Abstract

Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that it depends on sequence collection, which very rarely covers the entire population of interest. Ignoring missing data by conducting complete case analysis--which assumes that the observed network is complete--has been shown to result in significantly biased estimates of network properties. We use MHS to investigate disease dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Miami-Dade County (MDC) among men who have sex with men (MSM)--only 30.1% have a reported sequence. To do so, we present an approach for making Bayesian inferences on partially observed networks. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate a reduction in error of 43%-63% between our estimates and complete case analyses. We estimate increased mixing between MSM communities in MDC, defined by race and transmission risk compared to the results based on complete case analysis. Our approach makes use of a flexible network model--congruence class model--to overcome the high computational burden of previously reported Bayesian approaches to estimate network properties from partially observed networks.