Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes

TL;DR

This study shows that physical proximity and offline social ties are more influential than online connections in predicting voting behavior and electoral outcomes in the US, highlighting the importance of physical space in political polarization.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence that offline partisan exposure and segregation are stronger predictors of voting outcomes than online networks, emphasizing the role of physical space in political behavior.

Findings

Offline partisan exposure predicts US voting outcomes more accurately than online exposure.

Partisan segregation is higher offline than online and linked to education levels.

Offline social ties better predict individual vote choice than online connections.

Abstract

Affective polarization and increasing social divisions affect social mixing and the spread of information across online and physical spaces, reinforcing social and electoral cleavages and influencing political outcomes. Here, using individual survey data and aggregated and de-identified co-location and online network data, we investigate the relationship between partisan exposure and vote choice in the US by comparing offline and online dimensions of partisan exposure. By leveraging various statistical modeling approaches, we consistently find that partisan exposure in the physical space, as captured by co-location patterns, more accurately predicts electoral outcomes in US counties, outperforming online and residential exposures. Similarly, offline ties at the individual level better predict vote choice compared to online connections. We also estimate county-level experienced partisan segregation and examine its relationship with individuals' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Focusing on metropolitan areas, our results confirm the presence of extensive partisan segregation in the US and show that offline partisan isolation, both considering physical encounters or residential sorting, is higher than online segregation and is primarily associated with educational attainment. Our findings emphasize the importance of physical space in understanding the relationship between social networks and political behavior, in contrast to the intense scrutiny focused on online social networks and elections.