IID Prophet Inequality with Random Horizon: Going Beyond Increasing Hazard Rates

TL;DR

This paper extends prophet inequality results to a random horizon setting with known distribution, identifying classes where single-threshold algorithms achieve optimal ratios and demonstrating the necessity of multiple thresholds in some cases.

Contribution

It broadens the understanding of prophet inequalities with random horizons, showing single-threshold optimality for larger classes and introducing the first example requiring multiple thresholds.

Findings

Single-threshold algorithms achieve 1/2 ratio for larger horizon classes.

The 1/2 ratio does not extend to the dual class with decreasing hazard rates.

Multiple thresholds are necessary for some horizon distributions, exemplified by the Secretary Problem.

Abstract

Prophet inequalities are a central object of study in optimal stopping theory. In the iid model, a gambler sees values in an online fashion, sampled independently from a given distribution. Upon observing each value, the gambler either accepts it as a reward or irrevocably rejects it and proceeds to observe the next value. The goal of the gambler, who cannot see the future, is maximising the expected value of the reward while competing against the expectation of a prophet (the offline maximum). In other words, one seeks to maximise the gambler-to-prophet ratio of the expectations. This model has been studied with infinite, finite and unknown number of values. When the gambler faces a random number of values, the model is said to have random horizon. We consider the model in which the gambler is given a priori knowledge of the horizon's distribution. Alijani et al. (2020) designed a single-threshold algorithm achieving a ratio of $1/2$ when the random horizon has an increasing hazard rate and is independent of the values. We prove that with a single threshold, a ratio of $1/2$ is actually achievable for several larger classes of horizon distributions, with the largest being known as the $\mathcal{G}$ class in reliability theory. Moreover, we show that this does not extend to its dual, the $\overline{\mathcal{G}}$ class (which includes the decreasing hazard rate class), while it can be extended to low-variance horizons. Finally, we construct the first example of a family of horizons, for which multiple thresholds are necessary to achieve a nonzero ratio. We establish that the Secretary Problem optimal stopping rule provides one such algorithm, paving the way towards the study of the model beyond single-threshold algorithms.