Approximate Bayesian inference for high-resolution spatial disaggregation using alternative data sources

TL;DR

This paper presents a Bayesian spatial regression method to estimate fine-scale population density using satellite data, validated on Bangalore, India, enabling detailed demographic mapping from coarse data.

Contribution

It introduces an approximate Bayesian inference approach combining Laplace approximation and MCMC for high-dimensional spatial disaggregation using alternative data sources.

Findings

The method accurately captures spatial population distribution.

Simulation validates the effectiveness of the inference scheme.

Pixel-level estimates align well with ward-level data.

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of obtaining precise demographic information at a fine-grained spatial level, a necessity for planning localized public services such as water distribution networks, or understanding local human impacts on the ecosystem. While population sizes are commonly available for large administrative areas, such as wards in India, practical applications often demand knowledge of population density at smaller spatial scales. We explore the integration of alternative data sources, specifically satellite-derived products, including land cover, land use, street density, building heights, vegetation coverage, and drainage density. Using a case study focused on Bangalore City, India, with a ward-level population dataset for 198 wards and satellite-derived sources covering 786,702 pixels at a resolution of 30mX30m, we propose a semiparametric Bayesian spatial regression model for obtaining pixel-level population estimates. Given the high dimensionality of the problem, exact Bayesian inference is deemed impractical; we discuss an approximate Bayesian inference scheme based on the recently proposed max-and-smooth approach, a combination of Laplace approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo. A simulation study validates the reasonable performance of our inferential approach. Mapping pixel-level estimates to the ward level demonstrates the effectiveness of our method in capturing the spatial distribution of population sizes. While our case study focuses on a demographic application, the methodology developed here readily applies to count-type spatial datasets from various scientific disciplines, where high-resolution alternative data sources are available.