Industrial-Grade Time-Dependent Counterfactual Root Cause Analysis through the Unanticipated Point of Incipient Failure: a Proof of Concept

TL;DR

This paper introduces a counterfactual root cause analysis method focused on identifying the initial failure point in multivariate industrial time series, demonstrated through simulation and discussing future improvements.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach to pinpoint the incipient failure in industrial environments using counterfactual analysis, advancing causal technology for complex systems.

Findings

Effective identification of the Point of Incipient Failure in simulation

Demonstrated potential for early fault detection in industrial settings

Highlighted challenges and future directions for causal technology maturity

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a counterfactual Root Cause Analysis diagnosis approach for an industrial multivariate time series environment. It drives the attention toward the Point of Incipient Failure, which is the moment in time when the anomalous behavior is first observed, and where the root cause is assumed to be found before the issue propagates. The paper presents the elementary but essential concepts of the solution and illustrates them experimentally on a simulated setting. Finally, it discusses avenues of improvement for the maturity of the causal technology to meet the robustness challenges of increasingly complex environments in the industry.