The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

TL;DR

This paper introduces a forecasting challenge aimed at predicting armed conflict fatalities using models evaluated on UCDP estimates, emphasizing transparency and uncertainty quantification.

Contribution

It establishes a standardized prediction challenge with predefined evaluation metrics and procedures for forecasting conflict fatalities, promoting open and pre-registered modeling efforts.

Findings

Framework for forecasting conflict fatalities established

Models evaluated using a standardized metric

Promotes transparency and uncertainty quantification in predictions

Abstract

This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.