Exploring incentive strategies and predicting development trends for new energy vehicles

TL;DR

This paper develops a game-theoretic model to analyze the interactions between manufacturers and consumers in the NEV market, predicting development trends and identifying key factors influencing adoption.

Contribution

It introduces the Expectation Supply-Demand Game (ESDG) model with feedback mechanisms and demonstrates its effectiveness through numerical simulation and trend prediction.

Findings

An evolutionary stabilisation strategy (ESS) emerges with feedback.

Min-Max normalisation improves model accuracy.

Excessive marketing may lead to consumer boredom.

Abstract

To facilitate new energy vehicles (NEVs), we construct a game model between vehicle manufacturers and consumers to explore their interactions. In the model, we propose the Expectation Supply-Demand Game (ESDG), construct the consumer purchasing decision-making process with feedback and analyse the stability of the system under different feedback factors. We processes the data of the model in numerical simulation through Min-Max normalisation and predicts the development of NEVs. The results show that: (1) An evolutionary stabilisation strategy (ESS) emerges in the evolutionary game model with the introduction of feedback. (2) The Min-Max normalisation method is conducive to the accuracy of the model. (3) Excessive advertising and marketing may cause consumer boredom. (4) The establishment of an appropriate battery compensation and replacement insurance is conducive to the development of NEVs. (5) The production and sales ratio of China's NEVs is predicted to reach 37.2\% and 36.9\% respectively in 2024.