Towards An Online Incremental Approach to Predict Students Performance

TL;DR

This paper introduces a memory-based online incremental learning method using genetic algorithms to improve student performance prediction accuracy from stream data, outperforming existing methods by nearly 10%.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach combining genetic algorithms with memory constraints to enhance online student performance prediction models.

Findings

Achieved nearly 10% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art methods.

Maintained low standard deviation in accuracy (1-2.1%).

Demonstrated effectiveness on the OULAD dataset.

Abstract

Analytical models developed in offline settings with pre-prepared data are typically used to predict students' performance. However, when data are available over time, this learning method is not suitable anymore. Online learning is increasingly used to update the online models from stream data. A rehearsal technique is typically used, which entails re-training the model on a small training set that is updated each time new data is received. The main challenge in this regard is the construction of the training set with appropriate data samples to maintain good model performance. Typically, a random selection of samples is made, which can deteriorate the model's performance. In this paper, we propose a memory-based online incremental learning approach for updating an online classifier that predicts student performance using stream data. The approach is based on the use of the genetic algorithm heuristic while respecting the memory space constraints as well as the balance of class labels. In contrast to random selection, our approach improves the stability of the analytical model by promoting diversity when creating the training set. As a proof of concept, we applied it to the open dataset OULAD. Our approach achieves a notable improvement in model accuracy, with an enhancement of nearly 10% compared to the current state-of-the-art, while maintaining a relatively low standard deviation in accuracy, ranging from 1% to 2.1%.