Predictability of weakly turbulent systems from spatially sparse observations using data assimilation and machine learning

TL;DR

This study evaluates how spatial sparsity of observations affects the accuracy of data assimilation and machine learning methods in predicting weakly turbulent systems, establishing prediction zones and their implications.

Contribution

It introduces a systematic analysis of spatial sparsity effects on data-driven forecasting methods and delineates prediction zones based on observation density.

Findings

DA and ML methods perform well in the good-predictions zone.

Prediction accuracy declines as sparsity increases, failing in the bad-predictions zone.

The sparsity threshold for effective predictions aligns with the chaos synchronization limit.

Abstract

We apply two data assimilation (DA) methods, a smoother and a filter, and a model-free machine learning (ML) shallow network to forecast two weakly turbulent systems. We analyse the effect of the spatial sparsity of observations on accuracy of the predictions obtained from these data-driven methods. Based on the results, we divide the spatial sparsity levels in three zones. First is the good-predictions zone in which both DA and ML methods work. We find that in the good-predictions zone the observations remain dense enough to accurately capture the fractal manifold of the system's dynamics, which is measured using the correlation dimension. The accuracy of the DA methods in this zone remains almost as good as for full-resolution observations. Second is the reasonable-predictions zone in which the DA methods still work but at reduced prediction accuracy. Third is the bad-predictions zone in which even the DA methods fail. We find that the sparsity level up to which the DA methods work is almost the same up to which chaos synchronisation of these systems can be achieved. The main implications of these results are that they (i) firmly establish the spatial resolution up to which the data-driven methods can be utilised, (ii) provide measures to determine if adding more sensors will improve the predictions, and (iii) quantify the advantage (in terms of the required measurement resolution) of using the governing equations within data-driven methods. We also discuss the applicability of these results to fully developed turbulence.