Inevitable Endgame of Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (C/2023 A3)

TL;DR

The paper predicts the disintegration of comet C/2023 A3 before perihelion in 2024, based on multiple lines of evidence indicating advanced fragmentation and loss of activity.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the comet's current disintegration process and predicts its inevitable end, highlighting new observational evidence of its advanced fragmentation stage.

Findings

Comet failed to brighten beyond 2 AU, indicating early disintegration.

Evidence of nongravitational acceleration suggests nucleus fragmentation.

Presence of a narrow dust tail with large grains implies advanced disintegration.

Abstract

Hopes are being widely expressed that C/2023 A3 could become a naked-eye object about the time of its perihelion passage in late 2024. However, based on its past and current performance, the comet is expected to disintegrate before reaching perihelion. Independent lines of evidence point to its forthcoming inevitable collapse. The first issue, which was recently called attention to by I. Ferrin, is this Oort cloud comet's failure to brighten at a heliocentric distance exceeding 2 AU, about 160 days preperihelion, accompanied by a sharp drop in the production of dust (Af\rho). Apparent over a longer period of time, but largely ignored, has been the barycentric original semimajor axis inching toward negative numbers and the mean residual increasing after the light-curve anomaly, suggesting a fragmented nucleus whose motion is being affected a nongravitational acceleration; and an unusually narrow, teardrop dust tail with its peculiar orientation, implying copious emission of large grains far from the Sun but no microscopic material recently. This evidence suggests that the comet has entered an advanced phase of fragmentation, in which increasing numbers of dry, fractured refractory solids stay assembled in dark, porous blobs of exotic shape, becoming undetectable as they gradually disperse in space.