Insights on Stochastic Dynamics for Transmission of Monkeypox: Biological and Probabilistic Behaviour

TL;DR

This paper develops a stochastic model to analyze monkeypox transmission, integrating biological, contact, and demographic factors, and provides mathematical insights into disease persistence and extinction conditions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic framework for monkeypox transmission, including rigorous analysis of threshold parameters and asymptotic behavior, advancing understanding of disease dynamics under uncertainty.

Findings

Threshold parameters for disease persistence identified

Conditions for disease extinction established

Asymptotic transmission properties analyzed

Abstract

The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the interaction between stochasticity and biological elements in the dynamics of monkeypox transmission. The rigorous mathematical analysis determines threshold parameters for disease persistence. For the proposed model, the existence of a unique global almost sure non-negative solution is proven. Conditions leading to disease extinction are established. Asymptotic properties of the model are investigated such as the speed of transmission.