Indian Stock Market Prediction using Augmented Financial Intelligence ML

TL;DR

This paper develops and evaluates multiple machine learning models, augmented with human superforecasters' predictions, to improve stock market price forecasting accuracy in the Indian context.

Contribution

It introduces a hybrid approach combining ML models with human intelligence, specifically superforecasters, to enhance stock price prediction accuracy.

Findings

Bidirectional LSTM achieved the lowest MAE score.

Combining human superforecasters with ML models improves prediction accuracy.

The hybrid model outperforms individual ML models in stock price forecasting.

Abstract

This paper presents price prediction models using Machine Learning algorithms augmented with Superforecasters predictions, aimed at enhancing investment decisions. Five Machine Learning models are built, including Bidirectional LSTM, ARIMA, a combination of CNN and LSTM, GRU, and a model built using LSTM and GRU algorithms. The models are evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error to determine their predictive accuracy. Additionally, the paper suggests incorporating human intelligence by identifying Superforecasters and tracking their predictions to anticipate unpredictable shifts or changes in stock prices . The predictions made by these users can further enhance the accuracy of stock price predictions when combined with Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing techniques. Predicting the price of any commodity can be a significant task but predicting the price of a stock in the stock market deals with much more uncertainty. Recognising the limited knowledge and exposure to stocks among certain investors, this paper proposes price prediction models using Machine Learning algorithms. In this work, five Machine learning models are built using Bidirectional LSTM, ARIMA, a combination of CNN and LSTM, GRU and the last one is built using LSTM and GRU algorithms. Later these models are assessed using MAE scores to find which model is predicting with the highest accuracy. In addition to this, this paper also suggests the use of human intelligence to closely predict the shift in price patterns in the stock market The main goal is to identify Superforecasters and track their predictions to anticipate unpredictable shifts or changes in stock prices. By leveraging the combined power of Machine Learning and the Human Intelligence, predictive accuracy can be significantly increased.