Finding Hidden Swing Voters in the 2022 Italian Elections Twitter Discourse

TL;DR

This study analyzes Twitter discourse during Italy's 2022 elections to identify swing voters and their susceptibility to propaganda, revealing patterns of political migration and persuasive language use.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of swing voter behavior and propaganda susceptibility on social media during a national election.

Findings

Swing voters are more vulnerable to propaganda techniques.

Political popularity increases during election periods.

Variation in persuasive language use correlates with voter shifts.

Abstract

The global proliferation of social media platforms has transformed political communication, making the study of online interactions between politicians and voters crucial for understanding contemporary political discourse. In this work, we examine the dynamics of political messaging and voter behavior on Twitter during the 2022 Italian general elections. Specifically, we focus on voters who changed their political preferences over time (swing voters), identifying significant patterns of migration and susceptibility to propaganda messages. Our analysis reveals that during election periods, the popularity of politicians increases, and there is a notable variation in the use of persuasive language techniques, including doubt, loaded language, appeals to values, and slogans. Swing voters are more vulnerable to these propaganda techniques compared to non-swing voters, with differences in vulnerability patterns across various types of political shifts. These findings highlight the nuanced impact of social media on political opinion in Italy.