Thermo-Electro-Mechanical Modeling of Power Transmission Line Failures across Four US States

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive Thermo-Electro-Mechanical model combining deterministic and stochastic methods to analyze and predict power transmission line failures due to environmental factors across four US states.

Contribution

It introduces an integrated modeling approach that combines phase-field damage modeling with probabilistic analysis to assess transmission line reliability under environmental uncertainties.

Findings

Environmental conditions significantly influence failure probabilities.

The model accurately predicts failure likelihoods based on historical data.

Sensitivity analysis identifies key factors affecting reliability.

Abstract

The failure of overhead transmission lines in the United States can lead to significant economic losses and widespread blackouts, affecting the lives of millions. This study focuses on the reliability of transmission lines, specifically examining the effects of wind, ambient temperature, and current demands on lines, incorporating minimal and significant pre-existing damage. We develop a Thermo-Electro-Mechanical Model to analyze the transmission line failures across sensitive and affected states of the United States, integrating historical data on wind and ambient temperature. By combining numerical simulation with historical data analysis, our research assesses the impact of varying environmental conditions on the reliability of transmission lines. Our methodology begins with a deterministic approach to model temperature and damage evolution, using phase-field modeling for fatigue and damage, coupled with electrical and thermal models. Later, we adopt the Probability Collocation Method to investigate the stochastic behavior of the system, enhancing our understanding of uncertainties in model parameters, conducting sensitivity analysis, and estimating the probability of failures over time. This approach allows for a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting transmission line reliability, contributing valuable insights into improving power line's resilience against environmental conditions.