Correlation of the L-mode density limit with edge collisionality

TL;DR

This study develops a new predictive boundary involving edge collisionality and pressure that outperforms the traditional Greenwald limit in forecasting L-mode density disruptions across multiple tokamak devices.

Contribution

The paper introduces a data-driven edge collisionality and pressure boundary that more accurately predicts the L-mode density limit than the Greenwald scaling.

Findings

The new boundary achieves a false positive rate of 2.3% at 95% true positive rate.

It outperforms the Greenwald limit in multi-machine datasets.

The boundary can be used for real-time density limit avoidance in tokamaks.

Abstract

The "density limit" is one of the fundamental bounds on tokamak operating space, and is commonly estimated via the empirical Greenwald scaling. This limit has garnered renewed interest in recent years as it has become clear that ITER and many tokamak pilot plant concepts must operate near or above the Greenwald limit to achieve their objectives. Evidence has also grown that the Greenwald scaling - in its remarkable simplicity - may not capture the full complexity of the density limit. In this study, we assemble a multi-machine database to quantify the effectiveness of the Greenwald limit as a predictor of the L-mode density limit and compare it with data-driven approaches. We find that a boundary in the plasma edge involving dimensionless collisionality and pressure, $\nu_{*\rm, edge}^{\rm limit} = 3.5 \beta_{T,{\rm edge}}^{-0.40}$, achieves significantly higher accuracy (false positive rate of 2.3% at a true positive rate of 95%) of predicting density limit disruptions than the Greenwald limit (false positive rate of 13.4% at a true positive rate of 95%) across a multi-machine dataset including metal- and carbon-wall tokamaks (AUG, C-Mod, DIII-D, and TCV). This two-parameter boundary succeeds at predicting L-mode density limits by robustly identifying the radiative state preceding the terminal MHD instability. This boundary can be applied for density limit avoidance in current devices and in ITER, where it can be measured and responded to in real time.