Practical identifiability and parameter estimation of compartmental epidemiological models

TL;DR

This study investigates practical identifiability in epidemiological models using noisy simulated data, comparing estimation methods like MCMC and maximum likelihood, and highlighting the importance of initial conditions and data quality.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of estimation methods for epidemiological models, emphasizing the robustness of MCMC and the impact of fixing initial conditions on parameter identifiability.

Findings

MCMC is more robust than point estimators.

Fixing initial conditions improves estimates in certain models.

Noisy data diminishes the importance of structural identifiability.

Abstract

Practical parameter identifiability in ODE-based epidemiological models is a known issue, yet one that merits further study. It is essentially ubiquitous due to noise and errors in real data. In this study, to avoid uncertainty stemming from data of unknown quality, simulated data with added noise are used to investigate practical identifiability in two distinct epidemiological models. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of initial conditions, which are assumed unknown, except those that are directly measured. Instead of just focusing on one method of estimation, we use and compare results from various broadly used methods, including maximum likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation. Among other findings, our analysis revealed that the MCMC estimator is overall more robust than the point estimators considered. Its estimates and predictions are improved when the initial conditions of certain compartments are fixed so that the model becomes globally identifiable. For the point estimators, whether fixing or fitting the that are not directly measured improves parameter estimates is model-dependent. Specifically, in the standard SEIR model, fixing the initial condition for the susceptible population S(0) improved parameter estimates, while this was not true when fixing the initial condition of the asymptomatic population in a more involved model. Our study corroborates the change in quality of parameter estimates upon usage of pre-peak or post-peak time-series under consideration. Finally, our examples suggest that in the presence of significantly noisy data, the value of structural identifiability is moot.